2018’s heavy snowfall lead to conditions that marked the first time the entire state was considered to be 100 percent drought free since the US Drought Monitor began recording conditions in 2000. This fall has also seen above average snowfall with the Denver area receiving almost 14 inches through November 11, more than 5 inches above normal.
The recent history of above average snowfall begs the question: Are we in for high snowfalls again this year? Unfortunately, for the difficult to forecast Colorado mountains, there is no clear indication for how much snow we can expect. According to NOAA, there is no strong signal that could tilt the odds of Colorado receiving above or below average snow. They call it equal chances.
A weather pattern called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is traditionally looked at as an indicator for how much snow will fall in the Western U.S. According to NOAA, “The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño and La Niña are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third phase called ENSO Neutral.”
This year, there’s about an 85% chance the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral through the fall, and a 55-60% chance of continued neutral through the spring, which means that there is not a significant enough warming or cooling pattern in water temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean to strongly impact large-scale weather patterns.
Our last neutral ENSO winter was 2016-2017. That season dropped well below average snow in the Denver area (17.6 inchesfrom December through February), and well above average snow in the mountains.
The National Weather Service is predicting a warmer winter this year compared to normal, though precipitation conditions are predicted as having equal chances of being wetter or drier than average.
Though it seems unlikely we’ll see similar snow conditions to the 2018/2019 season, the Farmer’s Almanac does offer an alternative take. According to their winter outlook, Colorado can expect cold and wet conditions this season.
