According to the Farmer’s Almanac, Colorado is in for “normal to below normal” temperatures with above-normal snowfall in northern portions of Colorado.
Last year, the Almanac that has been providing long range forecasting since 1818 through a proprietary “secret” formula, predicted Colorado would see a “Frigid and snowy winter, with an above-average amount of snow.” The accuracy of the journal has long been called into question by meteorologists, but the state did see above average levels of snowpack last season, even though they did not yield above-average streamflows.
Unfortunately, other forecasting agencies aren’t reporting as optimistic conditions for drought relief or the ski season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) calls for a drier-than-average winter for the southern half of Colorado with “equal chances” for below average, near average, and above-average precipitation for northern Colorado.
This year, a moderate or strong La Niña is predicted to be in place from November through January.
“The La Niña pattern is generally warm and dry to the south, cool and wet to the north,” Russ Schumacher, Director of the Colorado Climate Center said. “The caveat is that Colorado is kind of in the middle, in terms of how the storm track evolves during a La Niña winter or El Niño winter, so it only explains so much of what’s happening here. Historically La Niña is pretty good for northern mountains. The farther north you go, the better.”
The “equal chances” outlook stems from the unpredictability of the La Niña impact. “If we look back at the last couple of La Niña’s we’ve had, 2017-2018 was a really bad winter to the south but wasn’t bad in Steamboat,” Schumacher said. “Then we go back to 2011-2012, which was a horrible year, and 2010-11, which was a huge snow year. Especially in the northern mountains, 2011 was one of the biggest snow years we’ve ever had. But the following winter was also La Niña, and was the start of a really bad drought.”
90-day forecasts from the National Weather Service are also predicting above-normal temperatures in Colorado and below-normal precipitation. Colorado has been under a high-pressure ridge the whole summer that is predicted to persist into at least the early winter months. The ridge sends most storms to the north leaving our drought-stricken state wanting for precipitation.